Alberta PC Leadership Race Vlog Post

  With only two days left in the Alberta PC Leadership Race, I have finally decided to do a post!  Here is a quick ramble about my thoughts on the race.....



This weekend should finally bring some excitement to this race!  I am interested to see who will move on to the top three.

Shane

Alberta PC Party...Be Careful What You Wish For!

  What a great time to be interested in politics!  The political developments over the past few months have produced a cornucopia of political stories and introduced a wealth of scenarios that never existed even six months ago.  The election of Daniele Smith as leader of the Wildrose Alliance Party has brought provincial political issues back to the water coolers and dining room tables in Alberta, which I believe is excellent for citizen engagement.  The constant media attention to politics lately has now moved towards Premier Stelmach's popularity in Alberta and his future as the leader of the PC Party.

  With the Alberta PC Party's convention approaching on November 7, many people are wondering how the Premier will fare in his mandatory leadership review?  Former Premier Ralph Klein set a pretty high standard when he commented publicly that anything less than a 70% approval rate will be unacceptable.  (Mr.Klein knows a thing or two about leadership reviews, having been "dumped" by his own party in a 2006 review.)   For all the talk in the media and the blogs about "turfing" Premier Stelmach by ensuring he receives less than 50% support, I must say..." Be careful what you wish for"!

 IF...and I must say IF... Mr Stelmach were to receive a low support level and resign as leader, who is going to replace him?  I cannot think of any one candidate that jumps out as the logical choice, but then again, who predicted that Ed would replace Ralph? 

 Lets look at some of the potential replacements..

• 
  
   Alison Redford - Minister of Justice and Attorney General. 
  
  
  
• 
  
   Dave Rodney
  
  
  
• 
  
  W.Brett Wilson.    This was previously discussed on Daveberta's blog here.
  
  
  
• 
  
  Dave Hancock
  
  
  
• 
  
  Ron Liepert
  
  
  
• 
  
  Jim Dinning  
  
  
  
• 
  
  Ted Morton 
  
  
  
• 
  
  MP Jim Prentice     
  
  
  

  Now, I am sure that there are many, many others that may fall into the rumour mill list!  I am not going to comment on the list above, as I want to know your thoughts? 

 Personally, I believe that Mr. Stelmach will survive the leadership review this year.  I cannot see the PC party dumping the leader at this point.  This will look like a "reactionary" move and with a Provincial election still at least 3 years away, a "panic" move is so unnecessary.  Slow down...take a few breaths...think things through folks.  Perhaps Mr.Stelmach is not the only problem here? 

Many people think that a new leader will solve all of the image problems with the PC Party.  Others think that the party is beyond repair and doomed to failure.  I believe the problem lies with the Governments ability to effectively communicate with the people of Alberta.   I think that all party members should take a long look in the mirror and work together over next year to fix these problems internally first.

 What are your thoughts?  Do you think the Premier will survive the leadership review?  If not, who do you think will replace him as the next leader of the Alberta PC Party? 

Shane

Let's look at the scenarios....

  Wow, it seems that some of the local blogs have slowed down since the end of the Calgary Glenmore by-election!  This seems odd, considering some of the crazy developments of late.  I thought I would run a quick rant on the random thoughts that have been running through my busy mind over the last few days:

•  Up to 10 PC MLA's are rumoured to switch over to the Wildrose Alliance Party, following a Danielle Smith leadership victory. 

 Hmmm.... I don't know what to make of this one.  I know that the source of this piece is a respected writer so I do not doubt the integrity of the author. ( Its not like it came from Calgaryrants.com!)  I wonder if there is any truth to this and if so...who will they be?  I find the timing of the recent appointments of local Conservatives Rob Anderson, Len Weber and Jon Denis interesting, but well deserved.  Perhaps these appointments can be seen as peace offering to the Calgary caucus?

So then...who will the 10 be?  I would like to know.  In my opinion, it will definitely not be any cabinet ministers as they will not want to give up their additional pay and benefits to sit with another party.  Perhaps some local backbenchers or new MLA's?  Perhaps some young/urban MLA's that see that they might not fit in with the current leader?  Perhaps only a handful, say 2-3, will actually leave?   I cannot see this happening anytime soon, but what do you think?

•    If Danielle Smith wins the Wildrose Alliance Leadership...what's next?

Once/if Danielle wins the leadership, what is the next step?  Ideally, she would want to get into the Legislature as soon as possible.  With the election 3-4 years off, the only option would be through a by-election.  How will this happen?  Politically, a party leader without a seat is not very effective in my opinion.  Its like having a fiery preacher without a church.  While Danielle can work the media wonderfully, and I am sure she will be a constant thorn in the PC's side, she would serve best as a sitting MLA.  So...who will "retire" to allow her to run in a by-election?  Personally, I cannot see any PC MLA's voluntarily stepping aside.  Perhaps a local Liberal will decide they have had enough and leave the Leg?  I doubt this also.  I bet a whole crop of PC MLA's may be disappointed to find that because of this scenario, any and all "appointments" just dried up until after the next election, which would keep all constituencies closed!

• If the Wildrose Alliance can be rejuvenated by a new leader, maybe the PC's can as well?

 Would it not be heartbreaking for the WAP to find that Premier Stelmach decides to retire before the next election, only to be replaced by a new, energetic leader? ( I support the PC party, but lets be realistic here....) Perhaps if the current tide holds and his support continues to go down, he will show his true leadership and commitment to the party and step aside before the next election.  Perhaps the rumour of Brett Wilson running will energize the party.  Perhaps a Conservative leader like Ted Morton will appease the right of the party and kill the WAP's ambitions in its tracks.  Who knows?  Any other scenarios out there?

The party in power has the upper hand and can plan ahead for these scenarios.  Its called Risk Management and it works.

Thoughts?