Two Calgary MLA's to Cross to the Wildrose Alliance Party!

Wow.  What a surprise I received this morning when I read in the Calgary Herald that two Calgary area MLA's are set to leave the PC Party and cross over to the Wildrose Alliance Party!  While there have been rumblings for months about this kind of bold move, I was still amazed at the news.  When you look at the two MLA's that are leaving, it is interesting to analyze why they may be doing it?  My thoughts...

  Rob Anderson:  This is potentially a bad loss for the PC party.  I personally like Rob as we share a lot of the same beliefs and are the same age.  I thought that his appointment to the treasury Board committee would have appeased his fiscal conservative conscious ( not to mention the additional pay that he will not forfeit!) but I guess not.  I guess that after 19 Months in government you are entitled to a full cabinet post? 

 Taking a look at his riding of Airdrie-Chestermere, Rob would face certain defeat against the Wildrose Alliance in Myron Thompson country!  I am sure that his decision is mainly rooted in his political future. 

  Heather Forsyth:   I do not understand this move at all?  Heather is a five term PC MLA going back to 1993.  My guess is that she was left out of cabinet AGAIN and is done with politics.  Want a crazy theory? Just for fun?.... Perhaps she is going to retire within the year and leave the seat open for WAP Leader Danielle Smith to run in.  This way, the PC party has to scramble to find a candidate that will run against Danielle on short notice.  Crazy?  Anything is possible in this wacky province now.  If not, Heather will surely by defeated by a PC candidate in the next election as this is not really s WAP friendly riding.  ( As an aside, I jokingly commented on Twitter today that her defection may allow some young PC bloggers in the area to run in the next election now!)

So now what?  Who is next to cross?  Will the Wildrose take any more PC MLA's into their party or will they just use the careers of these two politicians to further their credibility and Legislative standing? 

Shane

Let's look at the scenarios....

  Wow, it seems that some of the local blogs have slowed down since the end of the Calgary Glenmore by-election!  This seems odd, considering some of the crazy developments of late.  I thought I would run a quick rant on the random thoughts that have been running through my busy mind over the last few days:

•  Up to 10 PC MLA's are rumoured to switch over to the Wildrose Alliance Party, following a Danielle Smith leadership victory. 

 Hmmm.... I don't know what to make of this one.  I know that the source of this piece is a respected writer so I do not doubt the integrity of the author. ( Its not like it came from Calgaryrants.com!)  I wonder if there is any truth to this and if so...who will they be?  I find the timing of the recent appointments of local Conservatives Rob Anderson, Len Weber and Jon Denis interesting, but well deserved.  Perhaps these appointments can be seen as peace offering to the Calgary caucus?

So then...who will the 10 be?  I would like to know.  In my opinion, it will definitely not be any cabinet ministers as they will not want to give up their additional pay and benefits to sit with another party.  Perhaps some local backbenchers or new MLA's?  Perhaps some young/urban MLA's that see that they might not fit in with the current leader?  Perhaps only a handful, say 2-3, will actually leave?   I cannot see this happening anytime soon, but what do you think?

•    If Danielle Smith wins the Wildrose Alliance Leadership...what's next?

Once/if Danielle wins the leadership, what is the next step?  Ideally, she would want to get into the Legislature as soon as possible.  With the election 3-4 years off, the only option would be through a by-election.  How will this happen?  Politically, a party leader without a seat is not very effective in my opinion.  Its like having a fiery preacher without a church.  While Danielle can work the media wonderfully, and I am sure she will be a constant thorn in the PC's side, she would serve best as a sitting MLA.  So...who will "retire" to allow her to run in a by-election?  Personally, I cannot see any PC MLA's voluntarily stepping aside.  Perhaps a local Liberal will decide they have had enough and leave the Leg?  I doubt this also.  I bet a whole crop of PC MLA's may be disappointed to find that because of this scenario, any and all "appointments" just dried up until after the next election, which would keep all constituencies closed!

• If the Wildrose Alliance can be rejuvenated by a new leader, maybe the PC's can as well?

 Would it not be heartbreaking for the WAP to find that Premier Stelmach decides to retire before the next election, only to be replaced by a new, energetic leader? ( I support the PC party, but lets be realistic here....) Perhaps if the current tide holds and his support continues to go down, he will show his true leadership and commitment to the party and step aside before the next election.  Perhaps the rumour of Brett Wilson running will energize the party.  Perhaps a Conservative leader like Ted Morton will appease the right of the party and kill the WAP's ambitions in its tracks.  Who knows?  Any other scenarios out there?

The party in power has the upper hand and can plan ahead for these scenarios.  Its called Risk Management and it works.

Thoughts?